Thursday, April 15, 2004
By Tom Doggett, Reuters
WASHINGTON — World demand for all forms of energy is expected to
grow by 54 percent over the next two decades, with oil consumption
alone jumping by 40 million barrels a day, the U.S. government said
Wednesday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's long-term forecast
to the year 2025 projects the strongest growth in energy use from
developing countries, especially China and India, where buoyant
economies will boost demand.
Energy use in developing countries is forecast to soar by 91 percent
over the next two decades, while rising 33 percent in industrialized
nations.
"Generally, the nations of the industrialized world can be
characterized as mature energy consumers with comparatively slow
population growth," said the EIA, the Energy Department's analytical
arm. These countries are also shifting from energy-intensive manufacturing
to service industries, which means slower growth in energy use,
it said.
World oil demand is forecast to rise from 81 million barrels per
day (bpd) this year to 121 million bpd in 2025, with the United
States, China, and the rest of developing Asia soaking up almost
60 percent of those extra barrels, EIA said.
"Over the past several decades, oil has been the world's foremost
source of primary energy consumption, and it is expected to remain
in that position," the agency said.
To meet that demand, global oil production capacity would have
to rise by 44 million bpd over current levels, it said.
OPEC is expected to be the major supplier of the extra oil, with
the cartel's production at 56 million bpd in 2025 compared to 27
million bpd this year. Additional non-OPEC barrels will also come
from offshore wells in the Caspian Sea, Latin America, and West
Africa.
Average annual oil prices are expected to decline after this year
to $25 a barrel in inflation-adjusted 2002 dollars and then rise
slowly to $27 in 2025, which would be $51 a barrel in nominal dollars,
the agency said.
Other highlights of EIA long-term energy forecast include:
* Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source through
2025, increasing 67 percent to 151 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) a year.
That would be down from the 176 Tcf forecast in last year's report
because of slower projected declines in nuclear power generation
and concerns about long-term gas production.
* World electricity demand will almost double by 2025, growing
3.5 percent a year in developing countries from newly purchased
home appliances and air conditioning.
* Coal use will grow by 1.5 percent a year, with demand increases
in all regions expect for Western Europe and the former Soviet states
in Eastern Europe, where coal will be displaced by natural gas.
* Nuclear power use will increase because of higher generating
capacity rates for existing plants and fewer facilities will be
retired. In the developing world, consumption of electricity from
nuclear power increases by an average 4.1 percent a year during
the forecast period.
* Carbon dioxide emissions will rise from 23.9 billion metric tonnes
in 2001 to 27.7 billion tons in 2010 and 37.1 billion tons in 2025.
The developing world will account for 61 percent of the increase
because of reliance on coal and other fossil fuels.
Source: Reuters
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