Simple? Complex? Precautionary!

邵诗洋


Mr. Suzuki states nothing about nature is simple. Yes, it is true. Although we human beings always declared proudly that we can get to understand and change nature and we actually have done so, never can we assert that we have fully known the nature of nature, not to speak of controlling it. Why? Just as Suzuki said, “our natural systems have, over millions of years, developed complex systems of checks and balances”. Nature, the one we are living in and living with, seldom behave “in a simple, linear fashion”. Therefore, “in spite of all our scientific advances, we are only just beginning to understand how ecosystems work”.

This reminds me of the philosophy of science. Science, as the way to understand the laws of nature, is not simple of course, now that nature itself is not a simple matter. The more we know, the more we find that we don’t know. Then someone, frightened by Suzuki’s remarks about the complexity of nature or the complex nature of science, may ask, “Since nature and science are so complex, can we humans really understand them?” A pessimistic, agnostic view. However, complexity is not the only one side of science. We should not be scared by it, and notice the other side---simplicity. For example, Einstein’s theory of relativity is famous for its complexity and abstruseness, but it takes a very simple form, E=mc2, and Einstein didn’t draw his conclusion from a mass of complicated experiments. The nature of science is always complex, but it often hides behind some simple facts or phenomena, and the process we get to understand it usually begins with simplifying. It is a balance between the nature of science and the way to do scientific research. Think about how we conduct a research now. We collect data and facts, and then make assumptions and hypotheses to simplify the matter. No doubt the results we obtain in this way will fall short of scientific veracity and authenticity; however, this is what we can but do. Suppose that we haven’t made the assumption of “rational economic people”, how can we simplify the complicated economic behaviors and develop the neo-classic economics?

This philosophy also applies to nature. Nature is never simple, but we may find some simple rules of nature from some simple observations, or may simplify the complex nature to ecosystems, communities, species, etc. Nevertheless, oversimplification will lead to inaccuracy, and even error. That’s why Mr. Suzuki warned us not to be blindly optimistic of our scientific advances.

Considering my major, what kind of attitude should I hold? One word which I learned from the lesson International Environmental Law can best demonstrate my attitude towards nature. That is, precautionary. It is a fundamental rule of environmental law and environmental preservation. It means, namely, that one should be cautious even before he doesn’t know whether an adverse effect of an act will arise. This is something to keep in mind when we consider climate change, genetically modified organisms or biodiversity conservation, and so on.

I still remember once a teacher of law school asked me, “Why you environmentalists pay so much attention to biodiversity? Is a bird species whose name is quite strange to 99% of the world worth the great expense used to protect it?” Then I presented my answer, “I don’t know whether it is worthwhile now, but I am not sure about that tomorrow. Perhaps some day in the future, the gene of the bird becomes invaluable to us. Who knows? We ought to protect the species from dying out just for this probability.” This is precautionary. Another example, GMOs. No one can tell exactly and doubtless what bad influences GMOs can perform, while at present, the production, transportation, vendition, use, etc. of GMOs are regulated and restricted in many areas of the world, for the sake of precaution.

In a word, we are living in a planet full of X factors and uncertainties. Nature is still a sealed book for us; we have only caught a glimpse of its cover. What we are going to do is, reading the book, cautiously.




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